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OTB and bot content

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 29 September 2008, at 4:59 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and bot content (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Here the epcs are 43 for White and 45.57 for Blue, so Blue is not yet to 3 pips behind. But White wins 81%.

Move number 4: White to play 62

White	14
Blue	29
Position ID: 77YAAODfAQAAAA Match ID: MBkLAHAAaAAA

• Blue accepts

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+0.6177
	0.8088 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1912 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1370	+0.1370
3.	No double	+0.9105	-0.0895
Proper cube action:		Double, pass

But here the epcs are 43 to 44.71, and it's just a bare take. So an epc of 45 would be a pass.

Move number 7: White on roll, cube decision?

White	14
Blue	29
Position ID: d2sAAPDvAAAAAA Match ID: MAEAAHAAaAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+0.5545
	0.7772 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2228 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9924
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0076
3.	No double	+0.8473	-0.1451
Proper cube action:		Double, take

And here the epcs are 43 to 44.95, and it's a bare pass.

Move number 8: White on roll, cube decision?

White	14
Blue	30
Position ID: e2sAAPDvAAAAAA Match ID: MAEAAHAAaAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+0.5668
	0.7834 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2166 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0137	+0.0137
3.	No double	+0.8612	-0.1388
Proper cube action:		Double, pass

So clearly I need some better methods for determining whether an epc count is a take or a drop.

Messages In This Thread

• Denver race 8 cube
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 28 September 2008, at 1:53 a.m.
  • Denver race 8 cube
    likesbg -- Sunday, 28 September 2008, at 4:59 a.m.
  • Denver race 8 cube
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 28 September 2008, at 6:53 a.m.
    • Denver race 8 cube
      Neil Robins -- Sunday, 28 September 2008, at 9:16 a.m.
  • OTB and bot content
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 28 September 2008, at 10:03 p.m.
    • OTB and bot content
      pontiac -- Sunday, 28 September 2008, at 10:36 p.m.
      • OTB and bot content
        neilkaz -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 3:15 a.m.
        • OTB and bot content
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:12 a.m.
          • OTB and bot content
            neilkaz -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:39 a.m.
            • Another hint
              neilkaz -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:41 a.m.
            • OTB and bot content
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:56 a.m.
              • EPC ? 20 years ago..etc
                neilkaz -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 6:11 a.m.
              • OTB and bot content
                Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 2:19 p.m.
                • OTB and bot content
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 4:40 p.m.
                  • OTB and bot content
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 4:59 p.m.
                    • OTB and bot content
                      Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:08 p.m.
                      • OTB and bot content
                        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:09 p.m.
                        • OTB and bot content
                          Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:39 p.m.
                          • OTB and bot content
                            pontiac -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 8:07 p.m.
                            • OTB and bot content
                              Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 8:23 p.m.
                            • OTB and bot content
                              Bob Koca -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 8:52 p.m.
                    • OTB and bot content
                      Bob Koca -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:15 p.m.
                  • OTB and bot content
                    Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 5:02 p.m.
  • Denver race 8 cube
    Stick -- Sunday, 28 September 2008, at 10:46 p.m.
    • Denver race 8 cube
      neilkaz -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 3:06 a.m.
  • Denver race 8 cube
    bob koca -- Monday, 29 September 2008, at 6:49 a.m.