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What Can Go Wrong From Here? -- Ouch

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 30 September 2008, at 8:44 p.m.

In Response To: What Can Go Wrong From Here? -- Ouch (Keene)

I feel pretty strongly about the no recube here. My logic being that it doesnt take much for white to reship for the match, really a small advantage is all that is required.

Did you get the score reversed here?

Blue's takepoint on an 8 cube here is 11%. White needs to be nearly 90% to cash this. As for the double, let's see:

If White doubles and loses, he's at 0%, if he holds and loses, he's at -2, -5 for 25%. If he doubles and wins, he's at 100%, if he holds and wins, he's at -1, -6 for 89%.

25% / (25% + 11%) = 25/36 = around 70%. So White can't double until he's 70% and won't cash until he's 90%--clearly a lot better for Blue than for money.

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