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61 Struggle

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 4 October 2008, at 11:15 p.m.

In Response To: 61 Struggle (Stick)

Hitting outside escapes and gains ground in the race, but 6 blots, count em six, against a five prime is out.

So, let's start with some options or other. There's 11/5 8/7, 11/5 6/5, 13/7 6/5, 13/7 11/10, 13/7 8/7, all the priming plays, and also the hit and cover play.

Making the 5 point is often correct. If White rolls a 5 you hate it, otherwise you're in pretty good shape holding the cube. Haven't covered the bar point yet but if you do you're in very good shape.

If you make the bar and slot the 5 point, now you have some 30 covers. Making the 5 point only gives you 24 to complete the 5 prime.

You don't necessarily need to prime White to win here, you may be able to just win this race. Looking at it more you really don't want to be hit and containing the straggler is very good but is not completely necessary to win. So I think the slotting plays are too risky. That leaves 13/7 8/7, which seems better than 13/7 11/10, and 8/2*/1.

I don't like leaving that blot on the ace point, which is a point in favor of 8/2*/1, but I also don't like leaving 4 extra shots and giving up on priming variations. Blue probably won't be able to fully prime White but he may make him dump some checkers to deep points or crunch down to a 4-prime or something.

I think 13/7 8/7 is better than 8/2*/1 here. So 13/7 8/7 gets my pick.

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