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EARLY Sunday AM prop in Peoria RESULT

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Tuesday, 14 October 2008, at 6:39 p.m.

In Response To: EARLY Sunday AM prop in Peoria (Bill Riles)

Neil and I actually had a decent guess of 1 in 1000 with the actual answer being 1 in 6000. Stick and Rory were thinking much less likely than that.

We each bet $100 on the RO result showing at least 1 in 3000 wins. We probably could have got the same bet if we had said at least 1 in 10000 wins.

It actually came up as part of an earlier much less likely position to win. Suppose you have 1 checker on the bar and the rest on your 1 and two points. The opponent on roll has 2 on his 2 point and 4 on his one point. Not hard to calculate now that you know the 1 in 6000 result. But take your guess first. Which is closest:

A) 1 in 1,000,000 B) 1 in 1,000,000,000 C) 1 in 1,000,000,000,000 D) 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000

Reminds me of the time that there was going to be a samba band playing at the white house. Bush nixed the idea though thinking there wouldn't be enough room one the stage for 4 brazilian musicians

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