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Rollout - Get on it!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 27 February 2007, at 1:47 p.m.

In Response To: Have I been playing w/Snowie too long? (Stick)

I don't think most of you are seeing how strong this position is. This is something I'll happily admit I only know because of Snowie cubing me over & over & over again and me feeling like the cube was, as most of you felt here "too easy and too early". Then I'd see the results...

Let me start by asking you do all the doubles lose your market? On top of what about the hitting numbers followed by a normal reply? There are many of these sequences I can envision passing. I think there's more volatility here than the position is getting credit for.

One last thing to notice is the race. A very important factor here being up 19 pips + roll the absolute worst thing that can really happen is you sit around and wait to run off the bar pt. anchor. When nothing can go wrong and a lot can go right, you might want to consider turning that cube. In the actual game I cubed and my opponent told me they thought it was too early a cube. One of my prouder moments ... they're so few & far between while playing I have to relish in them a bit .......................................................................................................................................................................................ok, done relishing, for now.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?

156
137
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout	Money equity:	0.535
	0.6% 22.4% 67.9% 32.1% 5.1% 0.2%
	95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.535 ±0.023, - live cube no double: 0.783 ±0.042, - live cube double take: 0.844 ±0.053. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 9278 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1.	Double, take	0.837
2.	No double	0.763	(-0.074)
3.	Double, pass	1.000	(+0.163)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1.	Double, take	0.844
2.	No double	0.783	(-0.062)
3.	Double, pass	1.000	(+0.156)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Messages In This Thread

• Have I been playing w/Snowie too long?
  Stick -- Monday, 26 February 2007, at 4:34 a.m.
  • Re: Have I been playing w/Snowie too long?
    Mislav Radica -- Monday, 26 February 2007, at 10:48 a.m.
  • Re: Have I been playing w/Snowie too long?
    Ian Shaw -- Monday, 26 February 2007, at 11:51 a.m.
    • Re: Re: Have I been playing w/Snowie too long?
      Stanley E. Richards -- Monday, 26 February 2007, at 11:24 p.m.
      • Re: Re: Re: Have I been playing w/Snowie too long?
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 27 February 2007, at 2:04 a.m.
        • Re: Re: Re: Re: Have I been playing w/Snowie too long?
          Stanley E. Richards -- Tuesday, 27 February 2007, at 4:57 a.m.
  • Re: Have I been playing w/Snowie too long?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 26 February 2007, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Rollout - Get on it!
    Stick -- Tuesday, 27 February 2007, at 1:47 p.m.