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Congrats Barry!!

Posted By: Barry Silliman
Date: Monday, 20 October 2008, at 2:41 p.m.

In Response To: Congrats Barry!! (Coolrey)

Hi Ray, Bill Versaw was my finals opponent.

You say he got a great deal on the double.

This is what I was thinking OTB.

I'm up 2-away, 4-away. If I play it out and win to go 1-away, 4-away, I have 83% match equity. If I double and win I have 100% so I stand to gain 17%. If I play it out and lose I'm at 2-away, 3-away with 60% equity. By doubling I'm at 0% if I lose. So I'm giving 60 to 17 odds or need to win 77.9%. If the formula says that at 63 pips an 8 point deficit is the point of last take, wouldn't that appear to mean it's at about 77-78 or so because of recube vig, so shouldn't that extra pip add a percentage point or two to my winning chances? I also factored in that his 5 point was empty and he had a few checkers on his 6 so I thought there was some potential wastage if he rolled a lot of fives.

Afterwards Neil said the empty five point was not really a big factor but he did say he thought it was a good double.

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