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Congrats Barry!!

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Monday, 20 October 2008, at 4:35 p.m.

In Response To: Congrats Barry!! (Barry Silliman)

Hi Barry,

Remember that you divide the risk by the risk PLUS the gain when you derive your doubling point.

Using your numbers it looks like you risked 60%, (maybe 59?), to gain 17% so you would need 60/77= 77.9% for the window to "open" theoretically.

He is going to pass at 83-85 depending on what MET he subscribes to, although Tim Mabee threw away 5 % match equity in the finals in Peoria v Steve Brown in the same exact situation. Tim outsmarted us though; for he then rolled:

55,44,22,66,66,66.

Perhaps he used the diversion to palm in his race dice??? Hahaha, that was a JOKE people!

Anyway maybe my figures are incorrect but I thought the window for doubling at this score was thoretically and mathematically tiny... between 85 and 87%. If so, I am sure one of the smarter BGOers will correct me.

You had a 9 pip lead in a 69 pip race. The point of last take is a money calculation or a match equity one? Is that one of Walter's formulae? You guys that use that stuff totally intimidate me, I just guess OTB. Can't do much math under time, money and stress pressure myself. Did you actually calculate all of that stuff? How cool!

It sounds like you had a non contact racing position so it certainly wasn't too good to double. The 9 pip lead in that race is significant and perhaps this morning I didn't give it enough credit. I think the 5 gap would definitely make a difference in MY evaluation of the position, how much? Go ask someone who does the math! Remember, I just guess.

Seems like it must have been close, and not quite the bargain I said it was before, sorry! What did the bots come up with when you fed them the position? Seems to me I would not want to double before I was like 90%, however!

But then, I hate to lose on a redouble when my opponent had a proper take of my initial double. It may not be too scientific, but while I will be mildly more satisfied if my double works and I win, ... I will be noticeably upset if it doesn't and HE does!

I prefer to let my opponents and panic when they have about 10% chances and take. I am not going to be cutting that decision too closely, but that is just a matter of style!

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