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BGonline.org Forums
How close is it really?
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: How close is it really? (Bill Riles)
Date: Thursday, 23 October 2008, at 2:34 p.m.
I think the essence of this position is this: If you HIT, you become quite a bit more of a favorite. If you don't, the race is very close and your opponent is on roll. He will choose how to play that roll, unless you hit him. Discretion is the better part of valor sometimes, but fear is not the better part of great backgammon. Losing is a drag, okay, but so is playing not to lose instead of playing to win! In positions like this it is the finality of getting hit that stops people from making the right play, imho. {If I get hit, I won't get to play anymore!} Good players evaluate the race and all but decide: Backgammon is not a risk free game, I may get hit and lose with my play... but I will at least lose trying to win... With my boots on!
It is Gadi Carmeli... Bill. And I think actually that he was horribly punished for the correct play. At least that is what Falafel said. All the monday morning quarterbacks criticized him of course, but one has to remember that Monday morning quarterbacks never get in the game!
I believe the situation was this: Gadi had closed out Humke, at DMP, and had something like a 41 to play. He had spares on the 4 and 1 points, but he chose to break his 6 point and leave 3 men on his 5 point. One play is perfectly safe, and the other has a slight risk of this parlay:
Fan, 65, get hit with a 5 from the roof with few men off and lose. Which is what happened to Gadi!
Of course everyone criticized Gadi for this HORRIBLE blunder. sigh. The poor guy! He just got unlucky, I think. The parlay is something like this...
7/10 x 1/18 x 3/10 x 8/10 = 168/18,000 or 0.9333% losses. The race was gin if Humke came in, so clearing a point eliminated all chance, however slight, for contact if Humke rolled a 6.
Players usually win closed board positions about 3% depending on circumstances. Too bad for Gadi that his play got punished in front of so many people in the quarter-finals of the World Championships!
Side note: I lost to eventual finalist Luigi Villa in the same round of 8 that year... I played around 4 ER and played over 10. I led 12-10/21 and never scored another point as I recall.
Luigi played Humke in a 23 point match in the semi finals. Humke led 16-2/23 and lost 23-21 I believe! I think Humke was playing in the 3s, too. He is tough.
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