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Another BG problem!? 21 to play. Own it. - Evals

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 24 October 2008, at 12:27 a.m.

In Response To: Another BG problem!? 21 to play. Own it. - ROLLOUT (Keene)

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 3 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 21

White94


1O '3X3X3X2X2X1X ' ' ' '

1X1O4O2O3O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue87

Position ID: 3N0WACB6uw0AIA Match ID: QQllAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 3/2 3/1* -0.0069
0.5606 0.1203 0.0021 - 0.4394 0.0835 0.0040
2 2 24/23 3/1* -0.0916 ( -0.0847)
0.5162 0.1684 0.0044 - 0.4838 0.1792 0.0080
3 2 5/2 -0.3265 ( -0.3196)
0.4338 0.0894 0.0020 - 0.5662 0.0718 0.0032

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 3 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 21

White94


1O '3X3X3X2X2X1X ' ' ' '

1X1O4O2O3O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue87

Position ID: 3N0WACB6uw0AIA Match ID: QQllAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 3 24/23 3/1* -0.1205
0.5071 0.1629 0.0055 - 0.4929 0.1839 0.0070
2 3 3/2 3/1* -0.1215 ( -0.0010)
0.5195 0.1124 0.0028 - 0.4805 0.0727 0.0020
3 3 5/2 -0.3988 ( -0.2783)
0.4069 0.0759 0.0027 - 0.5931 0.0752 0.0015

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 3 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 21

White94


1O '3X3X3X2X2X1X ' ' ' '

1X1O4O2O3O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue87

Position ID: 3N0WACB6uw0AIA Match ID: QQllAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 4 3/2 3/1* -0.0057
0.5568 0.1393 0.0023 - 0.4432 0.0827 0.0040
2 4 24/23 3/1* -0.0761 ( -0.0705)
0.5167 0.1773 0.0045 - 0.4833 0.1750 0.0076
3 4 5/2 -0.3165 ( -0.3108)
0.4365 0.0908 0.0021 - 0.5635 0.0715 0.0027

Or, for money:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 5: Blue to play 21

White94


1O '3X3X3X2X2X1X ' ' ' '

1X1O4O2O3O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue87

Position ID: 3N0WACB6uw0AIA Match ID: QQkFAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 3/2 3/1* +0.0028
0.5598 0.1189 0.0021 - 0.4402 0.0800 0.0038
2 2 24/23 3/1* -0.1215 ( -0.1243)
0.5161 0.1688 0.0045 - 0.4839 0.1808 0.0083
3 2 5/2 -0.2982 ( -0.3009)
0.4333 0.0892 0.0021 - 0.5667 0.0679 0.0029

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 5: Blue to play 21

White94


1O '3X3X3X2X2X1X ' ' ' '

1X1O4O2O3O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue87

Position ID: 3N0WACB6uw0AIA Match ID: QQkFAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 3 3/2 3/1* -0.0877
0.5187 0.1111 0.0027 - 0.4813 0.0697 0.0020
2 3 24/23 3/1* -0.1413 ( -0.0536)
0.5083 0.1639 0.0056 - 0.4917 0.1865 0.0072
3 3 5/2 -0.3661 ( -0.2784)
0.4061 0.0754 0.0027 - 0.5939 0.0706 0.0013

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 5: Blue to play 21

White94


1O '3X3X3X2X2X1X ' ' ' '

1X1O4O2O3O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue87

Position ID: 3N0WACB6uw0AIA Match ID: QQkFAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 4 3/2 3/1* +0.0142
0.5562 0.1382 0.0023 - 0.4438 0.0788 0.0037
2 4 24/23 3/1* -0.0991 ( -0.1133)
0.5164 0.1774 0.0046 - 0.4836 0.1767 0.0077
3 4 5/2 -0.2738 ( -0.2881)
0.4371 0.0903 0.0020 - 0.5629 0.0667 0.0025

Given that data, one would expect 3/2 3/1* to roll out even better for money. I imagine there must be something going on with the recube and either the higher TP or (more likely) the effect of killing gammons.

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