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Best play to save the gammon

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 24 October 2008, at 4:56 p.m.

In Response To: Best play to save the gammon (happyjuggler0)

When looking to set up big doubles make sure that you keep the immediate big doubles. I was about to discard 13/12 14/12 on diversification principles and then saw that it takes away 55 as a good roll on the next shake and didn't consider it further.

So looks like 13/10 or 13/12 13/11. A quick check shows that the big doubnels of 44, 55 and 66 work equally well for both. What about setting up for doubles on the subsequent roll?

The tradeoff is that the checker on the 10 is already placed to make 55 work, however the cheker on the 12 point is placed to make 44 work and maybe that extra CO may help. What roll would make you glad you played 13/10? It is setting up for 5's so anything with a 1 or 2 is too small as there would still be a checker on the 12 point. If the roll has a 4 then the position after 12/11 12/10 could transpose. So let's consider rolls using only 3's 5's and 6's. We already checked 55 and 66.

A roll of 33 works better with the 13/11 13/12 play giving 4 working doubles intead of 3 after 13/10.

A roll of 35 works better for 13/10 giving 2 working doubels vs. 1 for 13/12 13/11.

A roll of 36 works better for 13/10 giving 3 working duobles vs. 2 for 13/12 13/11.

A roll of 66 works better for 13/12 13/11 giving 4 working doubles, vs. 3 after 13/10.

So we are up 2 saves in 1296 games so far in favor of 13/10. For some of the rolls we just have argued so far that 13/10 does not do better, but possibly it does actually worse.

A 45 roll is one that does better for 13/12 13/11 giving 4 saving doubles instead of 3 after 13/10. So now we are equal. Checking further you could possibly find other shakes that work better for 13/12 13/11. It does at least as good. No need OTB to determine if 13/10 is tied.

Early in a clocked match realize that general principles will not get this wrong by much and here suggests 13/10 or 13/12 13/11. If you make a play there is 50-50 chance it is correct and if wrong it is not wrong by much. So I wouldn't spend a couple minutes on it early in a match. Even at the score one must be careful not to spend nearly all of the time figuring it out.

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