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Best play to save the gammon

Posted By: happyjuggler0
Date: Friday, 24 October 2008, at 6:33 p.m.

In Response To: Best play to save the gammon (happyjuggler0)

Over the board I couldn't figure out a bean's worth of difference, so on "general principles" it seemed likely that if there was a difference that going for the extra crossover was as good an idea as any.

I like Bob Koca's approach best, but looking at the rollout it seems pretty clear that there are probably 6/1296 rolls (net) that favor 13/10. I just don't know what they are!

The score (after 2 games) is: white 1, blue 2 (match to 3 points, Crawford game)

Move number 69: blue to play 21


4X '1X ' ' ' ' ' ' '1O2O

4O5O3O ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

Pip counts: white 7, blue 63
Position ID: TwAAwPsOwAIAAA Match ID: 8AllABAAEAAA

• blue moves 13/12 13/11

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.010)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/10 -2.817
0.0000.0000.000-1.0000.9080.000 -2.817
0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.001
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808093184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
• 2 R 13/12 13/11 -2.826 ( -0.010)
0.0000.0000.000-1.0000.9130.000 -2.826
0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.001
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808093184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
3 R 13/11 3/2 -2.846 ( -0.029)
0.0000.0000.000-1.0000.9230.000 -2.846
0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.001
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808093184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
4 R 14/11 -2.850 ( -0.033)
0.0000.0000.000-1.0000.9250.000 -2.850
0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0010.000 0.001
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808093184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
5 R 14/12 13/12 -2.881 ( -0.064)
0.0000.0000.000-1.0000.9410.000 -2.881
0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0010.000 0.001
Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808093184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune

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