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BGonline.org Forums
Denver Cube #2
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Denver Cube #2 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 24 October 2008, at 8:54 p.m.
White would have very little cube power as when it gets good for him it gets very good very quickly. Volatility is very large with 9 rolls that lose market by a lot by making the 6 prime immediately. 6 other numbers (66,55, 54, 53) hit him off the edge of a 5 prime and are also likely market losers. It is a repeating volatility in that if one of those good numbers does not occur he usually does not escape and then there is a similar situation recurring. So I am confident it is a double as it does not need to be a large favorite to make it correct.
As white this looks close. One reference that is useful is that white could win about 5% even after a random closeout.
As white my main winning line is no hit or prime, then hopping 6, then a miss. The no hit or prime and then 6 is about 1/6 of the games. 66 is a killer probably winning a gammon and there will probably be another very strong fly shot. Let's call those as wins. The other eight 6's I get hit about half the time. So call half of those wins and the other half I am on the bar. If I get a 2 right away it is back to a similar position so about 1/4th wins. If I am on bar vs. that 5 prime, he can slot the back so it is not good. I will guess 10% wins. So in those 6 games white wins 3/11 + (1/2)(8/11) + (1/2)(8/11)(1/3(25%) + 2/3(10%). So we have white winning about 7.5 of the 11 times he gets that 6.
Out of the 6 games that gives about 4.5 wins.
Suppose now that there is no 6 prime or cover made and then there is not a 6. This happens in about 1/3 of the games. The position is now very similar and just a little worse for white. If we thought the original is close then this is also. Let's call it close to 1/4th wins. We have 3 more wins for a total of 7.5
Suppose now that the 6 prime is made (9 games). We still have about 5% so call it another .5 wins. We are up to 8 wins.
The other games are him getting a 55 or hitting loose. Let's say only 10% after the 55 so 0.2 wins.
After the other 5 loose hits can I get the needed .8 wins? That would be 16% win chance and I think I have it. A 62 often wins right away and other hits put me significantly better than the original position as he is farther from covering, does not have the immediate good numbers, and might even fan. A dance and I still keep about close to 10% chances.
So I think it is a close take.
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