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Bot info/analysis

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 25 October 2008, at 2:04 a.m.

In Response To: Best play to save the gammon (happyjuggler0)

For the big doubles, 66 and 55 break even as they both get off the gammon after either play. 44 is better after 13/10, played 14/6 10/6 13/9 rather than 14/6 12/4.

Looking at 13/12 13/11: 54 actually breaks even (after 14/10 13/8 Blue needs 44 or better to get off, there is no way to get 33). 33 does indeed gain one more save. 65 can also be played to gain a save. 63 costs a save. 53 also costs a save.

So far we have broken even. 41 also gains a save, since after 14/10 13/12, 55 doesn't work. So 13/12 13/11 is up one save.

The key is how good 44 is after 13/10. It really is that good. And, as an added bonus, you only even have to look at this one roll to get the right answer so you can save most of your effort OTB. If you play 14/6 10/6 13/9, then you are off with almost any roll next roll. The only rolls that don't get you off are 44 and 21.

If you play 14/6 12/4, now you need to roll a 5 or better. That means you miss with 21, 31, 32, 41, 42, 43, and 11--for 7/1296 saves. Clear win to 13/10.

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