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Bot info/analysis

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 25 October 2008, at 2:28 a.m.

In Response To: Another BG problem!? 21 to play. Own it. (Keene)

Let's start with the weakest of the bunch, the let-em-crash play 5/2. The timing isn't quite as good for Blue as it might look. White is on roll, but unless he rolls a big set his position is OK. He can still play anything with a big number in it as long as they aren't both 4 or bigger. Even 65 can be used to make the 2 point. If he rolls average it is about an even game, with both sides having the same timing. However, if White rolls small (21, 11, 31, 32, etc.), he is basically winning and will turn the cube shortly. Big sets do wreck his position but he has more winning numbers than losing numbers.

Now, let's look at the priming play, 3/2 3/1*. If White hits then Blue is quite happy to have a full 6-prime in place and be on the bar. There is nothing White can roll to wreck his position from the bar, but Blue is doing well. If he dances Blue needs to roll a 1 and a 6 and has a few rolls to do so as his prime crashes. White will redouble Blue in when Blue crunches to a 4 point board or a strippy 5 point board, or redouble him out when he comes in. I am not sure whether GNU handles the cube correctly here or not. It seems like a 4 point board should already be a pass to me with Blue not at the edge, but what do I know. All in all, Blue is about even money to escape and win before he loses.

The popular choice, 24/23 3/1*, is harder to evaluate. Blue is very happy when White dances, and he has 16 rolls to do so. The 26 joker leaves White too good. Coming in on the deuce (and usually hitting off the edge) doesn't leave White TG, but it does leave him in winning shape: 12 rolls altogether.

Coming in on the ace point is not nearly as good for White but it's not bad either. Blue is back to where he started but now he has two men to spring. White stands slightly better off here with 8 rolls that leave him sitting on the ace point.

Since Blue is almost even money after 3/2 3/1* but has 12 near-winning rolls after 24/23 3/1*, 3/2 3/1* is somewhat better. Blue is better off after 24/23 3/1* in the variations where White dances but that isn't enough to make up for how worse off he is in the variations where White enters.

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