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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 7 March 2007, at 1:15 a.m.

In Response To: Steve Sax v. Rory the Whorey - Cube? (Stick)

Just comparing the two resulting positions after the two possible 5-2 plays. (White had the man now on the 18 pt. on the bar and a 5-2 to play)

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
138
115
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.381
0.3% 24.2% 60.2% 39.8% 6.3% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.381 ±0.012, - live cube no double: 0.439 ±0.022, - live cube double take: 0.464 ±0.032. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 41022 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0.466
2. Double, take 0.474 (-0.008)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.534)
Proper cube action: No double, take-2%
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.464
2. No double 0.439 (-0.025)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.536)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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