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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 27 October 2008, at 10:58 p.m.

In Response To: Gaps vs 22pt anchor game cube action (neilkaz)

If my quick count is correct Neil leaves a shot on 16 immediate rolls, and one of those, 43, is a double shot. Of the other 20 numbers only 11 clear meaning 9 repeat (or get worse, 44 is fugly no matter how you slice it) My near perfect offensive structure should deter any cube until the bar point is cleared with this many immediate shot numbers. It's also not that easy to clear the 6pt if he does get lucky and clear the bar, if he loses his market it's not by much.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, neilkaz 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 28: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Stick	109
neilkaz	60
Position ID: ttsCAgzv8BsAAA Match ID: cAkgAQAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.246	(Money: +0.247)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.480
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.520
3.	Double, take	+0.313	-0.166
Proper cube action:		No double, take (24.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.619 0.044 0.000 - 0.381 0.036 0.001 +0.246 +0.480 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.007 Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.618 0.043 0.000 - 0.382 0.036 0.001 +0.489 +0.313 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.007 0.009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808323011 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Gaps vs 22pt anchor game cube action
  neilkaz -- Monday, 27 October 2008, at 1:27 a.m.
  • Gaps vs 22pt anchor game cube action
    pontiac -- Monday, 27 October 2008, at 6:06 a.m.
  • Gaps vs 22pt anchor game cube action
    Neil Robins -- Monday, 27 October 2008, at 7:55 a.m.
  • OTB (Stick will post rollout)
    neilkaz -- Monday, 27 October 2008, at 10:48 p.m.
    • OTB (Stick will post rollout)
      Barry Silliman -- Monday, 27 October 2008, at 10:57 p.m.
      • OTB (Stick will post rollout)
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 27 October 2008, at 11:02 p.m.
        • OTB (Stick will post rollout)
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 October 2008, at 2:29 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 27 October 2008, at 10:58 p.m.