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Rollout -- Naughty!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 9 March 2007, at 9:42 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. March 7th (Stick)

The absolute key factor of this position is that I have an extra blot floating around. You must hit in these type of positions. Hitting will stunt my growth not only in my ability to make any offensive progress, but also in safetying that blot. Gammons shoot way up. You give me 9 fanning numbers after which you have a very powerful cube. After your play, which is a distant 4th, you give me the chance to button up and go on my own offensive. You sat on the point I'd most like to make and I do have plenty of builders in place to possibly make it naturally, but if not, I may be forced to attack even though I'm outboarded, with a centered cube I'll be more apt to mix it up.

I wish I could write more about this position but I'm a big pussy with a pinched nerve in my shoulder and it hurts to type so until I get some good drugs, that's all you get.

Underneath the rollout I've posted a position modified by only 2 pips, putting my blot on the 15 point on my midpoint (safetying it) to show you how key that blot is to this type of situation. (Yes, Snowie 3 Ply definitely hits in position #1 also)


Match to 25, White leads 18 to 14
145
150
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 6/1* 5/1 +0.4777
0.56000.25670.0045-0.44000.10220.0073 +0.2928 +0.5267
0.00180.00250.0007-0.00180.00240.0011 0.0054 0.0133
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1019521940 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 24/15 +0.4677 ( -0.0100)
0.59440.17170.0067-0.40560.10650.0065 +0.2752 +0.5168
0.00240.00280.0009-0.00240.00240.0011 0.0063 0.0152
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1019521940 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 13/4 +0.4501 ( -0.0275)
0.56740.20590.0076-0.43260.11160.0092 +0.2604 +0.4995
0.00370.00380.0010-0.00370.00370.0019 0.0095 0.0212
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1019521940 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 4 R 24/20 13/8 +0.4037 ( -0.0740)
0.58040.17320.0073-0.41960.11500.0102 +0.2548 +0.4537
0.00330.00380.0009-0.00330.00520.0044 0.0100 0.0250
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1019521940 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Match to 25, White leads 18 to 14
143
150
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 3 24/15 0.299
0.6% 15.7% 58.0% 42.0% 10.3% 0.5%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
2 3 24/20 13/8 0.209 (-0.090)
0.6% 16.6% 55.0% 45.0% 11.1% 0.5%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
3 3 6/1* 5/1 0.209 (-0.090)
0.6% 20.7% 53.1% 46.9% 10.6% 0.5%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
4 3 13/4 0.148 (-0.151)
0.6% 17.0% 53.1% 46.9% 12.1% 0.7%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
5 3 24/20 6/1* 0.119 (-0.181)
0.5% 15.9% 52.2% 47.8% 11.2% 0.5%
Speed Parameter: Precise.

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