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Why 4 off? Gammon chances poor

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Thursday, 30 October 2008, at 9:25 p.m.

In Response To: Why 4 off? Gammon chances poor (Caryl Stephanson)

Mainly it is not because of the potential gammon that you would want to bear 4 off here, even though it increases your small chances for a gammon from around 5% to just over 10%.

Taking the 4 checkers off tends to ensure that you win more often when you get hit, also verified by your rollout. Blue's board is crunched partially and will never get better than 5 points made in general. The more checkers you have off when you get hit the longer you can dance on that board and remain the favorite. Added to the extra gammons, and it is a win/win move, even though you expose yourself to more shot leaving rolls.

To lose requires a long parlay anyway, the parlay is tougher to achieve if you have more checkers off once the first two legs of the parlay, (leaving a shot, and getting hit), have happened. Then the last leg of the parlay, (losing the game), is less likely due to the extra two checkers you cleverly bore off with your 55 play... Because you looked at the whole board!

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