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BGonline.org Forums
ME cube
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: ME cube (David Rockwell)
Date: Thursday, 30 October 2008, at 9:56 p.m.
I know a lot of times it is just not right to redouble on a single shot, or even a double shot for that matter... But how often do you play 21 point matches?
To my chagrin I never learned how to use Neil's Numbers over the table and I don't even know what you guys are talking about regarding 11c and 26 xxx Match Equity Tables. I need to read more of the technical stuff on this site, I guess!
Anyway, OTB, you need to estimate your chances if you lose a plain game and go down 2-18/21. Your risk in redoubling is the difference between that and 2-20*/21. Geez, can that even be as much as 2%? It's 500 to 1 to win 9 games in a row, ignoring gammons... but anyway... Just assign a number like 2% so you can make an educated guess.
then use R / R + G to find the place your window opens. All hits here would lose your market, and I am quite sure you don't want to be doing that at this score 14 times outta 36!
How much better is 6-16 vs 4-16? I don't really know, but if I use my "guess" of 2% and plug that into the R on the formula I can figure out what it needs to be... to make redoubling profitable for me.
I know I am hitting 14/36 or about: 39% so...
2/2+G has to equal more than that.
2/5, for instance, is 40%. So if G is as much as 3%, and I suspect it is... Then I can redouble and not worry too much about it, even if it ends up wrong and I have to prop it against Stick and Rory.
That being said; The simplest way to look at this problem is from your opponent's side, in my opinion.
Does HE want you to redouble? Gammons are not impossible in this position if you hit... When you realize that the answer is NO, unless you are playing someone with NO fear like Ed O'Laughlin or Malcolm Davis, or maybe even Stick Rice, or UBK... Then you can at least make him sweat by redoubling and who cares if it is right or not?
BECAUSE:
One thing for sure... That guy will NOT be sending over any marginally speculative 2 cubes leading 16-2/21 against you ever again! One must become mentally ascendent in match play and send a message to his opponents that he is not a shrinking violet, not a man to be trifled with.
If you are sitting there, mulling over this decision whether to redouble or not, an alert opponent is patting himself on the back for his earlier double since there is a good chance there aren't going to be any consequences from having done so. Do not allow your opponents to even get the impression that you are soft. They don't double Jon Vietor with this lead because he has no fear. Why should you be fretting over this situation? Whatever you do, you are going to lose... But if you WIN, you might as well make it SPECTACULAR. Create FEAR in this opponent for the rest of his life when he plays YOU. That way you have an invisible force field around you in the future, protecting you from those who would double you with impunity. Think, baby, all the time!
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