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Skill adjusted rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 31 October 2008, at 3:30 p.m.

In Response To: Lost my market ? (neilkaz)

GNU 0 ply is about 110 ELO weaker (my estimate) at DMP vs 2 ply...so it seems that my 200 ELO weaker opp is not very likely to win this game the required 28.2% he needs to take.

With that in mind and noting how close to TG the rollout is, I definately have to consider Ray's point that I should take a roll here and often move closer to winning a G or perhaps causing my opp to make a big cube error later.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, ntk 0 (match to 2 points)

Move number 4: gnubg on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	152
ntk	184
Position ID: 4DnyAFiY2+ABIQ Match ID: MAFAAAAAAAAA

• gnubg doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.529	(Money: +1.021)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.041	+0.041
3.	No double	+0.980	-0.020
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.715 0.460 0.184 - 0.285 0.048 0.005 +0.529 +0.980 Standard error 0.002 0.004 0.005 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.011 Player ntk owns 2-cube 0.723 0.507 0.228 - 0.277 0.048 0.006 +1.041 +1.041 Standard error 0.002 0.005 0.006 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.013 0.013
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4277 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 807819282 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Messages In This Thread

• Lost my market ?
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 10:35 p.m.
  • Lost my market ?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 10:43 p.m.
    • Lost my market ?
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 10:54 p.m.
      • Lost my market ?
        pontiac -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 11:02 p.m.
      • Lost my market ?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 11:04 p.m.
        • Lost my market ?
          neilkaz -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 11:13 p.m.
          • Lost my market ?
            Coolrey -- Friday, 31 October 2008, at 2:17 a.m.
      • Lost my market ?
        Dan Pelton -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 11:23 p.m.
        • Lost my market ?
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 11:39 p.m.
          • Lost my market ?
            Stick -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 11:58 p.m.
  • Lost my market ?
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 29 October 2008, at 10:52 p.m.
  • Lost my market ?
    Stick -- Thursday, 30 October 2008, at 4:49 a.m.
  • Lost my market ?
    Neil Robins -- Thursday, 30 October 2008, at 8:11 a.m.
  • OTB....
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 30 October 2008, at 2:43 p.m.
  • Skill adjusted rollout
    neilkaz -- Friday, 31 October 2008, at 3:30 p.m.
    • Contrary thoughts
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 1 November 2008, at 12:46 p.m.