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Short rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 31 October 2008, at 3:46 p.m.

In Response To: ME cube (David Rockwell)

According to MEC26:

Cr, -19 is 99.6%
-3, -19 is 98%
-5, -17 is 92.6%
-5, -15 is 89.5%

Risk = 1.6%, Gain = 2.9%, 1.6/4.5 = 35.5%

There may be some argument over the numbers, but it doesn't look close at this score. If -3, -19 were 97% then it wouldn't be a double but that just doesn't seem right to me.

Pretend it is -5, -11 instead. Everyone should be comfortable with g11. Then:

Cr, -11 is 96.78%
-3, -11 is 89.73%
-5, -9 is 72.74%
-5, -7 is 62.87%

Risk = 7.05%, Gain = 9.87%, Risk/Risk + Gain = 41.67%. Since Blue will win right around 41% he has a close decision at -5, -11 (also note that gammons are not impossible). If it's close at -5, -11 I don't see how it can be close at -5, -19.

Ortega & Kleinman:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 16, Blue 2 (match to 21 points)

Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White46


4X2X5X2O3X ' '1X ' ' ' '

'2O2O3O2O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue100

Position ID: b58jAAC22wYABg Match ID: UQmgAgABEAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless MWC 3.753%(Money: -0.1784)
0.4116 0.0150 0.0001 - 0.5884 0.0168 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take 4.480%
2.Double, pass 6.471% 1.991%
3.No double 3.902% -0.577%
Proper cube action:Redouble, take

Snowie 2.1:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 16, Blue 2 (match to 21 points)

Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White46


4X2X5X2O3X ' '1X ' ' ' '

'2O2O3O2O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue100

Position ID: b58jAAC22wYABg Match ID: UQmgAgABEAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless MWC 3.771%(Money: -0.1764)
0.4131 0.0149 0.0001 - 0.5869 0.0177 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take 4.831%
2.Double, pass 6.471% 1.640%
3.No double 3.938% -0.893%
Proper cube action:Redouble, take

Woolsey:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 16, Blue 2 (match to 21 points)

Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White46


4X2X5X2O3X ' '1X ' ' ' '

'2O2O3O2O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue100

Position ID: b58jAAC22wYABg Match ID: UQmgAgABEAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless MWC 3.753%(Money: -0.1784)
0.4116 0.0150 0.0001 - 0.5884 0.0168 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take 4.475%
2.Double, pass 6.471% 1.995%
3.No double 3.902% -0.573%
Proper cube action:Redouble, take

MEC26/g11:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 16, Blue 2 (match to 21 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 43

White46


4X2X5X2O3X ' '1X ' ' ' '

'2O2O3O2O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue100

Position ID: b58jAAC22wYABg Match ID: UQmuAgABEAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC 4.275%(Money: -0.1696)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take 4.915%
2.Double, pass 7.400% 2.485%
3.No double 4.421% -0.494%
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Blue owns 2-cube0.40690.03180.0009-0.59310.01600.0000 4.275% 4.421%
Standard error0.00170.00300.0003-0.00170.00110.0000 0.011% 0.014%
Player White owns 4-cube0.41450.03260.0011-0.58550.01750.0001 4.921% 4.915%
Standard error0.00140.00300.0003-0.00140.00110.0000 0.035% 0.035%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 807421196 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

G11 @ -5, -11:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 16, Blue 10 (match to 21 points)

Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White46


4X2X5X2O3X ' '1X ' ' ' '

'2O2O3O2O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Blue100

Position ID: b58jAAC22wYABg Match ID: UQmgAgABUAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC 17.399%(Money: -0.1691)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take 18.015%
2.Double, pass 27.261% 9.246%
3.No double 17.840% -0.175%
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Blue owns 2-cube0.40740.03090.0009-0.59260.01560.0000 17.399% 17.840%
Standard error0.00160.00290.0003-0.00160.00090.0000 0.036% 0.038%
Player White owns 4-cube0.41430.03150.0010-0.58570.03390.0001 18.130% 18.015%
Standard error0.00150.00300.0003-0.00150.00710.0000 0.097% 0.094%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 807421196 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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