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Short rollout

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Saturday, 1 November 2008, at 2:28 a.m.

In Response To: Short rollout (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Matt: There may be some argument over the numbers, but it doesn't look close at this score. If -3, -19 were 97% then it wouldn't be a double but that just doesn't seem right to me.

David: I won't argue the numbers. I'll argue the method. A doubling window calculation can never lead to a conclusion that a double is correct (except on the last roll of the game). A doubling window calculation can lead to a conclusion that a double MAY be correct and that's all it can do.

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