Suppose you have 4 on the ace point and opponent has one on 2 point and one on 4 point. The cube is centered and you are losing 3away 2 away. The market window opens at 58%. Your cubeless chances are only about 47%. But the cube is correct. If you fail to roll doubles it is a double take. Since the cube will be on two for all of your opponent's wins you should ensure it will be on two for all of your wins also.
This idea might occur much earlier in the game as well.
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 1, rkoca 0 (match to 3 points)
Move number 10: rkoca on roll, cube decision?
| gnubg | 52 |
|---|---|
| |
| rkoca | 72 |
Position ID: d3cDAgDbdgcAAQ Match ID: cAlgABAAAAAA | |
• rkoca doubles
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless MWC | 39.42% | (Money: +0.152) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Double, take | 39.39% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, pass | 50.00% | 10.61% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | No double | 37.41% | -1.98% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | Double, take | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 57 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808221224 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 144 games) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
With 57% cubeless win chance and less than 2% gammons it is just short of being in the market window. However the double is very clear. The volatility is extremely large so you would just need to be barley inside of it for the cube to be correct. But here you have an extra reason making the cube correct due to an aspect that is totally unaccuonted for in the lower ledge calculation; the recube power of the opponent can change depeding on the cube value. Here, if you cube to 2 right now it will be zero and the game is played to the end. If you don't he cashes the game next turn and deprives you of some winning chances.
I think this aspect is more important than most realize. It also is an important consideration losing n away 3 away. The opponent has less cube power holding a two cube than having acess to a centered cube.
UBK