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Couple Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 4 November 2008, at 6:05 a.m.

In Response To: Estimate winning chances (rew)

These two rollouts show what a typical outcome would be in my opinion. I would have rolled out your original position but it was taking too long. I imagine GNU is overplaying it thinking it needs to hit a 3rd checker when really all it needs to do is not allow an anchor or if Blue does anchor, trap and get at least two men up and closed out again. About 4% MWC fluctuates on the positioning of the spares and they won't always be perfect esp. when you're trying to close out/trap checkers.

What does your rollout show for the original position and why don't you believe it?

The score (after 0 games) is: user 0, gnubg 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

user	60
gnubg	51
Position ID: AQAAtu1uBAAAAA Match ID: MAElAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/6	+0.4995
			0.7497 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2503 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4995 +0.4995 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0028 0.0028
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 807572709 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 0 games) is: user 0, gnubg 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

user	57
gnubg	51
Position ID: AQAAdrttEAAAAA Match ID: MAEmAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	11/6	+0.4154
			0.7077 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2923 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4154 +0.4154 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0028 0.0028
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 807544421 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Estimate winning chances
  rew -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 8:56 p.m.
  • Estimate winning chances
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Estimate winning chances
    Stick -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 9:15 p.m.
    • Estimate winning chances
      rew -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 9:23 p.m.
      • Estimate winning chances
        Stick -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 9:35 p.m.
  • Couple Rollouts
    Stick -- Tuesday, 4 November 2008, at 6:05 a.m.
    • Couple Rollouts
      rew -- Tuesday, 4 November 2008, at 12:35 p.m.
      • Couple Rollouts
        rew -- Tuesday, 4 November 2008, at 2:52 p.m.
        • a couple of rollouts of my own
          rew -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 8:33 a.m.
          • a couple of rollouts of my own
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 8:49 a.m.
          • Snowie 4's 3ply play
            rew -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 9:08 a.m.
            • Couple more Rollouts
              Stick -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 10:05 a.m.
              • Couple more Rollouts
                rew -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 12:02 p.m.
                • Couple more Rollouts
                  Stick -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 7:49 p.m.
                  • Couple more Rollouts
                    rew -- Thursday, 6 November 2008, at 10:50 a.m.
                • Couple more Rollouts
                  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 8:54 p.m.