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Couple Rollouts

Posted By: rew
Date: Tuesday, 4 November 2008, at 2:52 p.m.

In Response To: Couple Rollouts (rew)

Let me start for now by explaining my OTB thinking.

I "knew" that if I had taken off 11 checkers, with my last two checker on my ace and he had me closed out with spares I would have a small money take, perhaps at 22 - 23%.

How much to adjust for one less checker? I dont know actually, but imagined a few percentages like 6-7%.

How much to adjust for me not having him closed out? Not much at all in my opinion, as you should just hit loose and if he does anchor up try to trap. Plus the fact that you might pick up the third blot should more than compensate.

In my mind that added it all up to me having only about 27% chances.

I may be wrong about this estimate of course. More later.

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