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Couple more Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 10:05 a.m.

In Response To: Snowie 4's 3ply play (rew)

So if you close 2 out with perfect distribution you're 75%, if you close 3 out you're 94%, however if you allow your opponent the ace point anchor with no opportunity to trap you're down to 50%. I don't know what that all means other than I'd basically stick with the close out with two on the bar and not overextending myself to try to get a 3rd checker.

By leaving the ace point slotted instead of making it you're allowing the possibility for the following:

The score (after 0 games) is: user 0, gnubg 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

user	66
gnubg	49
Position ID: AQAAY3dvBAAAAA Match ID: MAElAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/6	-0.0019
			0.4991 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.5009 0.0008 0.0002 -0.0019 -0.0019 0.0025 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0025 0.0003 0.0001 0.0050 0.0050
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809133677 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 0 games) is: user 0, gnubg 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

user	60
gnubg	75
Position ID: AAAAt+1uBAAAAA Match ID: MAElAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/6	+0.8867
			0.9434 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0566 0.0000 0.0000 +0.8867 +0.8867 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0026 0.0026
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1300 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808728748 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Estimate winning chances
  rew -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 8:56 p.m.
  • Estimate winning chances
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Estimate winning chances
    Stick -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 9:15 p.m.
    • Estimate winning chances
      rew -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 9:23 p.m.
      • Estimate winning chances
        Stick -- Monday, 3 November 2008, at 9:35 p.m.
  • Couple Rollouts
    Stick -- Tuesday, 4 November 2008, at 6:05 a.m.
    • Couple Rollouts
      rew -- Tuesday, 4 November 2008, at 12:35 p.m.
      • Couple Rollouts
        rew -- Tuesday, 4 November 2008, at 2:52 p.m.
        • a couple of rollouts of my own
          rew -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 8:33 a.m.
          • a couple of rollouts of my own
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 8:49 a.m.
          • Snowie 4's 3ply play
            rew -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 9:08 a.m.
            • Couple more Rollouts
              Stick -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 10:05 a.m.
              • Couple more Rollouts
                rew -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 12:02 p.m.
                • Couple more Rollouts
                  Stick -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 7:49 p.m.
                  • Couple more Rollouts
                    rew -- Thursday, 6 November 2008, at 10:50 a.m.
                • Couple more Rollouts
                  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 5 November 2008, at 8:54 p.m.