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Rollout

Posted By: KenB
Date: Friday, 7 November 2008, at 12:03 a.m.

In Response To: Bad play 1 of 2 (KenB)

Bad play 1.

Being behind in the race by 18 after the roll, two men back vs one and not wanting to try and prime one checker, I hit with 21/17/16. I was wrong. Gnu has this as an error of .08 and being the third best move. I could see my play being wrong but with an error of .08 I was wondering if there is something real fundamental that I was missing.

The score (after 0 games) is: BadGuy 0, GoodGuy 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 4: GoodGuy to play 41

BadGuy	125
GoodGuy	148
Position ID: zN6CAyBwZ5YBBg Match ID: cAmmAAAAAAAA

• GoodGuy moves 21/17*/16

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.057	(Money: +0.057)
	0.527 0.114 0.004 - 0.473 0.112 0.003
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.090
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.910
3.	Double, take	-0.221	-0.311
Proper cube action:		No double, take (25.5%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	11/7 8/7	+0.126
			0.529 0.107 0.004 - 0.471 0.109 0.005 +0.064 +0.126 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2386 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809218897 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/4 5/4	+0.099 ( -0.027)
			0.522 0.110 0.003 - 0.478 0.114 0.006 +0.047 +0.099 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2386 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809218897 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	21/17*/16	+0.046 ( -0.080)
			0.529 0.141 0.010 - 0.471 0.194 0.011 +0.008 +0.046 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2385 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809218897 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Bad play 1 of 2
  KenB -- Thursday, 6 November 2008, at 5:18 p.m.
  • Bad play 1 of 2
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 6 November 2008, at 5:31 p.m.
  • Bad play 1 of 2
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 6 November 2008, at 5:49 p.m.
    • Bad play 1 of 2
      Randy -- Thursday, 6 November 2008, at 7:12 p.m.
      • Bad play 1 of 2
        Stick -- Friday, 7 November 2008, at 3:45 a.m.
  • Bad play 1 of 2
    Caryl Stephanson -- Thursday, 6 November 2008, at 7:39 p.m.
  • Rollout
    KenB -- Friday, 7 November 2008, at 12:03 a.m.