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hit now or wait for a better shot?

Posted By: Bill
Date: Friday, 7 November 2008, at 8:57 p.m.

In Response To: hit now or wait for a better shot? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I have a rollout that I will post after a bit.

On 2-ply analysis GnuBG is very touchy about the placement of the two "extra" blots - white's checker on the 16pt and black's checker on the 9pt. In the position as posted, GnuBG doesn't see a difference between 20/14* 4/2 and 8/2 6/4. Move white's checker to the 18 and it develops a huge preference for 20/14* 4/2 (0.99). Likewise, moving the black checker back to the 11 or up to the 7pt and GnuBG likes the safe play (though only by 0.3).

I also had an interesting result with the rollout. Mainly, I was (following advice posted to this forum) watching the JSD, expecting to stop the rollout when it got big. But it climbed to 3.4 after 150 trials and then plunged back to 2.4 in the next 100 trials. So I let it just go to 1296 and the JSD stabilized around 5.5. Is this normal?

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