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BGonline.org Forums
hit now or wait for a better shot?
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: hit now or wait for a better shot? (Bill)
Date: Friday, 7 November 2008, at 10:22 p.m.
I also had an interesting result with the rollout. Mainly, I was (following advice posted to this forum) watching the JSD, expecting to stop the rollout when it got big. But it climbed to 3.4 after 150 trials and then plunged back to 2.4 in the next 100 trials. So I let it just go to 1296 and the JSD stabilized around 5.5. Is this normal?
Yes.
3.4 JSDs = somewhere around a 99.x% chance the best play will win. It isn't a 99.x% chance that the best play will win by the equity given--often it will win by more, often it will win by less, rarely it will lose. Although I don't stop rollouts < 108 trials no matter how big the JSD gets. Usually ~324-432 trials is the minimum I let rollouts go, but if the JSDs are really huge (e.g. 4-5+) I'll stop them after 108.
2.4 JSDs = 1 JSD less than 3.4. Gaining or losing 1 JSD in 100 trials will happen a large percentage of the time. I'm no statistician, but I do see this happen a lot.
I'll investigate how the position of the blots affects things. Moving White's blot up to the bar would seem to make a big difference because then if you elect not to hit, White can cover the bar with rolls like 3-1, 2-2, etc., and his position is very strong. Covering the 9 doesn't help him as much. Moving the blots around to other places doesn't seem to make a huge difference to me.
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