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hit now or wait for a better shot?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 8 November 2008, at 8:57 a.m.

In Response To: hit now or wait for a better shot? (Bill)

Move white's checker to the 18 and it develops a huge preference for 20/14* 4/2 (0.99).

When White covers next roll, his position is much stronger if he holds the bar point. Also, and important, when White rolls badly and has to leave a repeat shot, his position is stronger leaving the blot on the 7 rather than the 9, both if he gets hit and if he doesn't. Outside of these two considerations the positions more or less break even.

With Blue's blot on his bar, Blue is much worse off when White rolls a return 16, 52, or 43 from the bar. He is also worse off in the variations where White return hits a different blot--e.g., when White rolls 11, 12, 14, etc.

Similarly with the blot on the 11 or 10 point. He basically breaks even here--he is somewhat worse off when White dances or enters without hitting, but somewhat better off when White enters with a return hit on one of the other two blots. However, the effect of unduplicating White's 54 is big enough to swing the play.

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