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Rollout

Posted By: adambulldog
Date: Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 6:48 p.m.

In Response To: Holding Game Cube Decision? (adambulldog)

Everyone was right; this was a poor double. I have a couple of questions about the rollout:

1. The rollout took four hours and the jsd ended up being around 1.3. What does that say about the statistical validity of the rollout? Do I need to roll this position out further?

2. Does the parenthetical 4.1 percent indicate the percentage of drops I need to get in order to justify the double?

The score (after 4 games) is: bulgari 3, adambulldog 3 (match to 7 points)

Move number 20: adambulldog on roll, cube decision?

bulgari	126
adambulldog	101
Position ID: 2GYbIwCba2LAAA Match ID: cAngADAAGAAA

• adambulldog doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.22%)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC		52.11%	(Money: +0.263)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	52.30%
2.	Double, pass	57.37%	5.07%
3.	Double, take	52.08%	-0.22%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (4.1%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.601 0.118 0.002 - 0.399 0.054 0.003 52.11% 52.30% Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.03% 0.05% Player bulgari owns 2-cube 0.611 0.128 0.001 - 0.389 0.061 0.005 55.85% 52.08% Standard error 0.002 0.004 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.10% 0.12%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808798566 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful
keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1
keep the first 0 1-ply moves
Cube: 2-ply cubeful

Messages In This Thread

• Holding Game Cube Decision?
  adambulldog -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 1:25 a.m.
  • Holding Game Cube Decision?
    Bill Riles -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 2:16 a.m.
  • Holding Game Cube Decision?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 4:22 a.m.
    • Holding Game Cube Decision?
      Stick -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 10:43 a.m.
  • Rollout
    adambulldog -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 6:48 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Stick -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 6:57 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 7:10 p.m.
        • Rollout
          Stick -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 7:22 p.m.
      • Rollout
        adambulldog -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 7:11 p.m.
        • Rollout
          Stick -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 7:23 p.m.
        • Rollout
          neilkaz -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 7:27 p.m.
    • Rollout
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 6:58 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 6:58 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Stick -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 7:02 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 8:57 p.m.