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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 6:57 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (adambulldog)

Your move filter is horrific in my opinion:

keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1

Frightening.

The rollout took four hours and the jsd ended up being around 1.3. What does that say about the statistical validity of the rollout? Do I need to roll this position out further?

If the JSD is only 1.3 then yes, you'd need to extend it further to get more certainty. I believe 1 JSD correlates to ~66% chance that the results remain the same if the experiment was repeated. You'd have to ask someone else for the exact figures, I'm too lazy to look them up, I try never stopping a rollout before 3 JSDs [99.7% that play A will remain ahead of play B] with a minimum number of trials usually being 324.

2. Does the parenthetical 4.1 percent indicate the percentage of drops I need to get in order to justify the double?

Yes.

Stick

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