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Rollout

Posted By: adambulldog
Date: Monday, 10 November 2008, at 8:20 p.m.

In Response To: Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score (adambulldog)

The rollout is not conclusive, as the JSDs are only .554. Since this rollout took nearly 24 hours on my crappy computer I don't see much point in rolling it out for another couple of weeks.

The score (after 2 games) is: Coolrey 5, adambulldog 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 6: adambulldog on roll, cube decision?

Coolrey	151
adambulldog	140
Position ID: sM/gAREzbuABMA Match ID: cAngAFAAAAAA

• adambulldog doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.04%)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC		14.58%	(Money: -0.015)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	15.92%
2.	Double, pass	19.81%	3.88%
3.	Double, take	15.88%	-0.04%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (1.0%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.492 0.204 0.004 - 0.508 0.171 0.035 14.58% 15.92% Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.03% 0.05% Player Coolrey owns 2-cube 0.500 0.210 0.003 - 0.500 0.191 0.039 15.88% 15.88% Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.006 0.003 0.06% 0.06%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808994809 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3 (min. 324 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful

Annotation

Messages In This Thread

• Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
  adambulldog -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 11:30 p.m.
  • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 9 November 2008, at 11:36 p.m.
  • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 12:02 a.m.
    • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
      Stick -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:55 a.m.
      • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:02 a.m.
        • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
          Stick -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:33 a.m.
          • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
            Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:29 p.m.
          • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
            Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:36 p.m.
  • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
    neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:08 p.m.
    • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
      adambulldog -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:30 p.m.
      • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
        neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:03 p.m.
  • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
    Keene -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:25 p.m.
  • Rollout
    adambulldog -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 8:20 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:09 p.m.
      • Rollout
        adambulldog -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:52 p.m.
        • Rollout
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:56 p.m.
          • Rollout
            adambulldog -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 12:05 a.m.
            • Rollout
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 2:10 a.m.
              • Rollout
                adambulldog -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 3:45 a.m.
                • Rollout
                  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 3:55 a.m.
                • Rollout
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 4:00 a.m.
  • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
    Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:32 p.m.
    • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
      Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:42 p.m.
    • Blitz(ish) Cube Action Behind in Score
      adambulldog -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:49 p.m.

 

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