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Rollout

Posted By: adambulldog
Date: Monday, 10 November 2008, at 11:58 p.m.

In Response To: Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene (adambulldog)

I know this is not statsig, but based on the early returns and the opinion of the expert panel I am calling this play in favor of the kiltless player.

The score (after 2 games) is: kilted 1, adambulldog 1 (match to 7 points)

Move number 8: kilted on roll, cube decision?

kilted	149
adambulldog	146
Position ID: 4LuDASJw58gBBg Match ID: MAHgABAACAAA

• kilted doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.114)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.419	(Money: +0.395)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.686
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.314
3.	Double, take	+0.572	-0.114
Proper cube action:		No double, take (26.7%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.641 0.203 0.005 - 0.359 0.082 0.013 +0.419 +0.686 Standard error 0.006 0.006 0.001 - 0.006 0.005 0.010 0.016 0.044 Player adambulldog owns 2-cube 0.640 0.211 0.005 - 0.360 0.080 0.024 +0.934 +0.572 Standard error 0.009 0.009 0.002 - 0.009 0.005 0.013 0.036 0.093
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 808994809 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3 (min. 324 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful

Annotation

Messages In This Thread

• Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene
  adambulldog -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene
    pontiac -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:07 p.m.
    • Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:11 p.m.
  • Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:08 p.m.
  • Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene
    neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:23 p.m.
  • Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene
    Stick -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:41 p.m.
  • Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene
    Keene -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:57 p.m.
    • Early Game Cube Action vs. Kilted Keene
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 11:00 p.m.
  • Rollout
    adambulldog -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 11:58 p.m.
    • Rollout (longer)
      Keene -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 3:19 p.m.
      • Rollout (longer)
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 6:05 p.m.