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LV Round #3 Cube #2 Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 5:34 a.m.

In Response To: LV Round #3 Cube #2 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

John correctly chose to play on. He rolled 53, I hit, he danced, and I became TG myself and won an undoubled gammon.

Keene: Of course, if I fail to cover, and blue hits me, I will scream at you then curse myself for not cashing.

Fortunately, John took it significantly better than this.

The score (after 3 games) is: John O'Hagan 4, Matt Cohn-Geier 2 (match to 15 points)

Move number 22: John O'Hagan on roll, cube decision?

John O'Hagan	100
Matt Cohn-Geier	100
Position ID: 7uwBA0DWbgkjAA Match ID: MAHgAUAAEAAA

• John O'Hagan moves 16/11 7/4

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.9401	(Money: +0.9340)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.0195
2.	Double, take	+1.8650	+0.8455
3.	Double, pass	+1.0000	-0.0195
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, pass (2.3%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.8784 0.1957 0.0031 - 0.1216 0.0212 0.0004 +0.9401 +1.0195 Standard error 0.0006 0.0014 0.0002 - 0.0006 0.0003 0.0001 0.0017 0.0036 Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 2-cube 0.8970 0.1824 0.0026 - 0.1030 0.0197 0.0006 +1.9536 +1.8650 Standard error 0.0008 0.0017 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0004 0.0001 0.0044 0.0053
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2432 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805960321 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.579)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	3	16/11 7/4	+0.4177
			0.6644 0.1564 0.0031 - 0.3356 0.1326 0.0056

Of course, if you think I got tremendously lucky, here was the position two rolls ago:

The score (after 3 games) is: John O'Hagan 4, Matt Cohn-Geier 2 (match to 15 points)

Move number 19: Matt Cohn-Geier to play 41

John O'Hagan	104
Matt Cohn-Geier	89
Position ID: 1m4JAwLu+BgGAA Match ID: cAnmAUAAEAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier moves 9/5* 6/5

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.334)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	9/5* 6/5	+0.8439
			0.7399 0.1249 0.0016 - 0.2601 0.0303 0.0005

John rolled 45 to hit, I danced.

Messages In This Thread

• LV Round #3 Cube #2
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 10:25 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2
    rummer1973 -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 10:46 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2
    adambulldog -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 10:47 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2
    pontiac -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 10:57 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2
    Keene -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 11:22 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2
    neilkaz -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 11:32 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2
    Mislav Radica -- Tuesday, 18 November 2008, at 12:21 a.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 18 November 2008, at 2:08 a.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 18 November 2008, at 3:56 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #2 Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 5:34 a.m.