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LV Round #3 Cube #3 Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 5:42 a.m.

In Response To: LV Round #3 Cube #3 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

John again correctly chose to play on. Later, given the sequence of events, he second guessed this decision and thought he should have doubled this. Falafel thought it was D/P, I still thought that it was TG.

John rolled 42 and failed to cover, I hit, he danced, I won another gammon.

The score (after 10 games) is: John O'Hagan 10, Matt Cohn-Geier 10 (match to 15 points)

Move number 21: John O'Hagan to play 42

John O'Hagan	137
Matt Cohn-Geier	135
Position ID: NpuRAWC0PcEBIg Match ID: AQHqAaAAUAAA

• John O'Hagan moves 13/9 6/4

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.8900	(Money: +0.8296)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.0713
2.	Double, take	+1.3137	+0.2424
3.	Double, pass	+1.0000	-0.0713
Proper cube action:		Too good to redouble, pass (22.7%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player John O'Hagan owns 2-cube 0.7276 0.4473 0.0325 - 0.2724 0.0975 0.0080 +0.8900 +1.0713 Standard error 0.0014 0.0021 0.0024 - 0.0014 0.0024 0.0008 0.0046 0.0067 Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 4-cube 0.7354 0.4309 0.0836 - 0.2646 0.1053 0.0173 +1.4725 +1.3137 Standard error 0.0009 0.0015 0.0027 - 0.0009 0.0019 0.0013 0.0049 0.0056
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4782 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806150252 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.554)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	13/7	+0.4947
			0.5906 0.3364 0.0221 - 0.4094 0.2093 0.0323
•	2	3	13/9 6/4	+0.4770 ( -0.0177)
			0.5846 0.3338 0.0222 - 0.4154 0.2105 0.0305

Again, if you feel I was tremendously lucky here, consider that my position two rolls ago looked much better:

The score (after 10 games) is: John O'Hagan 10, Matt Cohn-Geier 10 (match to 15 points)

Move number 18: Matt Cohn-Geier to play 63

John O'Hagan	142
Matt Cohn-Geier	120
Position ID: 2J7BASI2m5EDCA Match ID: QQnvAaAAUAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier moves 13/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	22/13	+0.3547
			0.6741 0.1651 0.0044 - 0.3259 0.0637 0.0017
•	2	3	13/4*	+0.3309 ( -0.0238)
			0.6160 0.3130 0.0154 - 0.3840 0.1305 0.0064

John rolled another 45 from the bar and I danced again. You'd have thought he would have learned from the last time, but now he'll definitely remember to cash after rolling 45 from the bar, especially followed by a dance.

Messages In This Thread

• LV Round #3 Cube #3
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 10:25 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #3
    rummer1973 -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 10:51 p.m.
    • LV Round #3 Cube #3
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 10:57 p.m.
      • LV Round #3 Cube #3
        rummer1973 -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 11:08 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #3
    adambulldog -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 11:02 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #3
    pontiac -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 11:02 p.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #3
    neilkaz -- Monday, 17 November 2008, at 11:39 p.m.
    • LV Round #3 Cube #3
      Mislav Radica -- Tuesday, 18 November 2008, at 12:17 a.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #3
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 18 November 2008, at 2:06 a.m.
  • LV Round #3 Cube #3 Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 5:42 a.m.