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Ou est le BK ?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 3:51 a.m.

In Response To: Ou est le BK ? (neilkaz)

If a 4-cube comes back White's TP is 40% so Blue has better recube vig than normal, but Blue almost never gets a takeable recube in by his shot equity, unless he is supposed to recube looking at a shot. Maybe he is, but the double would be marginal. He can get plenty of takeable recubes in via his racing equity, though.

Blue's TP on an initial cube here is like 35%, not too great. Up by 16 pips I'd double this as White. And I'd take as Blue, because boxes or 5s or even 4s evens up the race and White doesn't have his 5 point. Blue probably can't win it 35% of the time but he can win maybe 25-30% of the time, which recube vig seems like it should allow him to take.

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