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LV Round #5 Play #4 Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 3:57 a.m.

In Response To: LV Round #5 Play #4 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I picked and passed here, blah. Rather large blunder. I wanted to even up the race because I am still behind and may not hit another shot (I might not even get one, but once I get one I still have to hit it). But White's board, although it's lacking the 6 point, is still a 5-point board and I can still get gammoned. Pick & pass is right at DMP but not here.

I didn't roll out other plays, if you picked one, just book a ticket on the BK express.

Ray brought up an interesting question: can pick & pass be right based on the position of the cube? Turns out, it's still quite bad if Kit owns the cube. However, with the cube in the center, it is still right to make the 12 point, but pick & pass is now only a marginal error. Anyone have any ideas about this?

The score (after 4 games) is: Kit Woolsey 2, Matt Cohn-Geier 5 (match to 15 points)

Move number 31: Matt Cohn-Geier to play 31

Kit Woolsey	88
Matt Cohn-Geier	98
Position ID: t90AGATbuEEjAA Match ID: UYnlASAAKAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier moves 7/4*/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	16/12	+0.1236
			0.4814 0.0408 0.0005 - 0.5186 0.0268 0.0002 -0.0286 +0.1236 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 - 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.0007 0.0010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			11918 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805930773 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	7/4*/3	+0.0228 ( -0.1008)
			0.4900 0.0493 0.0005 - 0.5100 0.1415 0.0030 -0.1395 +0.0228 0.0010 0.0009 0.0000 - 0.0010 0.0014 0.0003 0.0025 0.0037
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1295 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805930773 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 5 (match to 15 points)

Move number 6: Blue to play 31

White	88
Blue	98
Position ID: t90AGATbuEEjAA Match ID: QYnlASAAKAAA

• Blue moves 7/4*/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	16/12	-0.1939
			0.4890 0.0439 0.0012 - 0.5110 0.0287 0.0002 -0.0111 -0.1939 0.0020 0.0018 0.0006 - 0.0020 0.0016 0.0001 0.0045 0.0065
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805423310 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	7/4*/3	-0.2691 ( -0.0752)
			0.5014 0.0481 0.0004 - 0.4986 0.1453 0.0034 -0.1209 -0.2691 0.0021 0.0020 0.0001 - 0.0021 0.0028 0.0004 0.0055 0.0070
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805423310 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 5 (match to 15 points)

Move number 7: Blue to play 31

White	88
Blue	98
Position ID: t90AGATbuEEjAA Match ID: cInlASAAKAAA

• Blue moves 7/4*/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	16/12	+0.0361
			0.4825 0.0426 0.0006 - 0.5175 0.0298 0.0003 -0.0199 +0.0361 0.0008 0.0007 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0007 0.0000 0.0018 0.0040
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1680 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805895663 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	7/4*/3	+0.0157 ( -0.0204)
			0.4941 0.0524 0.0005 - 0.5059 0.1478 0.0030 -0.1021 +0.0157 0.0008 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0011 0.0002 0.0021 0.0040
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1680 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805895663 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• LV Round #5 Play #4
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 6:13 a.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4
    Havard Raddum -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 8:40 a.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 3:41 p.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4
    pontiac -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 5:08 p.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4
    Keene -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 5:22 p.m.
  • Moving to Tennessee
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 6:19 p.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4
    Philippe Michel -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 10:24 p.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4
    adambulldog -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 10:24 p.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 11:36 p.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4 (on second thought)
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 11:40 p.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4
    Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 19 November 2008, at 11:56 p.m.
  • LV Round #5 Play #4 Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 3:57 a.m.
    • LV Round #5 Play #4 Rollout
      pontiac -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 2:30 p.m.
    • LV Round #5 Play #4 Rollout
      Dan Pelton -- Friday, 21 November 2008, at 5:09 a.m.