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Ou est le BK ?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 4:25 a.m.

In Response To: Ou est le BK ? (neilkaz)

Depending on your MET and assuming no g's, I think the trailer needs around 24-25% cubeless chances to take at this score. It's not immediately clear to me that his racing/hitting chances are this high, so doubling seems clear. Plus there's the oppt factor to consider: You're playing against Neil and have a position that should be easy to play. You therefore can't afford to wimp out and take a roll here.

The take looks to be a close decision. Kleinman's racing formula sez the leader in a 98-114 race has about 84% chances. Of course this isn't a pure race. There's contact and there's that open 5-point to consider. White's got 10 ways to make the 5 which really help his game a lot and 6 more(63,62,61) that clear the 9 and leave lots of spares on the 6-7-8. I think this means White's a slight favorite to eventually make his 5-point.

I think these sequences where White makes his 5-point are too much and that Blue has to pass. It looks like around 22% cubeless chances for Blue here, a few percent short of takeland.

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