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OTB

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 9:38 p.m.

In Response To: OTB (Matt Cohn-Geier)

First off, when you have no idea... Its a take!

Second, while you have wastage because you crunched, White has gaps, so call that a wash maybe.

You are anchored so no attacking threat, so not much of a fear factor argues for taking.

The race is close, very close, which indicates take too. All factors point towards a take so far.

However, White's main advantage aside from the small race lead and being on roll are the extra two crossovers. Your crossovers are "long" or could be long ones, and his are short ones. He will get into the bearoff more quickly, you may take a while. So that is a deficit for you, and results in his ability to ship it over at this point.

However, since you own his 5 point, you have to vacate it before he can begin to fill that gap... so his bearoff, with that gap and the 4 point and 3 point gaps also... will slow down the bearoff he reaches before you do. You shouldn't miss once you are in.

Most of these factors are even or only slightly negative for you. No reason to overule the fact that the race is only 2 pips and you have an anchor. So, if he doubles then you take it.

You did good, Matt.

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