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Round #5 Play #5 Rollout
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Round #5 Play #5 (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Friday, 21 November 2008, at 7:14 p.m.
Blunder! Since Kit broke his midpoint, I wanted to split his forces and noted that if I hit on the bar point, Kit wouldn't be able to make it and he would probably have to move the checker on the midpoint. I also dupe his 6s. But I should just go with the prudent 13/12*, unstacking, less shots. If Kit makes the bar point I am still in fine shape. If he hits me on his 5 point then I don't want him to have 27 shots next roll at the blot on my bar point, just the 15ish at the blot on my mid. If Kit doesn't make my bar I now have 5s 6s and 1s to hit him there instead of just 1s.
The score (after 5 games) is: Kit Woolsey 2, Matt Cohn-Geier 7 (match to 15 points)
Move number 10: Matt Cohn-Geier to play 51
Kit Woolsey 151
Matt Cohn-Geier 179 Position ID: hueSIDDgc/AAWA Match ID: cInmASAAOAAA
• Matt Cohn-Geier moves bar/20 8/7*
# Ply Move Equity 1 R bar/20 13/12* -0.0675
0.5024 0.1595 0.0137 - 0.4976 0.1862 0.0178 -0.0411 -0.0675 0.0028 0.0030 0.0013 - 0.0028 0.0027 0.0014 0.0089 0.0201 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 650 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805883957 and quasi-random dice Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games) Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] • 2 R bar/20 8/7* -0.1748 ( -0.1073)
0.4813 0.1518 0.0161 - 0.5187 0.2085 0.0228 -0.1137 -0.1748 0.0031 0.0031 0.0025 - 0.0031 0.0028 0.0014 0.0101 0.0220 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 650 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805883957 and quasi-random dice Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games) Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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