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Round #5 Cube #2 Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 21 November 2008, at 7:18 p.m.

In Response To: Round #5 Cube #2 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

This one is TCTC but I'm going to guess that it's a razor thin take. For money I take all day--the open five point is big, and it's easy to underestimate Blue's counterchances with four of White's men back. I can dilly on the bar for a roll or two and am still one roll away from making a 4 prime with two checkers trapped behind it. This looked like a score based pass to me.

I don't feel bad about passing this one. I don't want to give Kit an easy in back into this match. I'd still drop here.

The score (after 5 games) is: Kit Woolsey 2, Matt Cohn-Geier 7 (match to 15 points)

Move number 22: Kit Woolsey doubles to 2

Kit Woolsey	145
Matt Cohn-Geier	167
Position ID: 4NvBAFi2ORFAMg Match ID: MBngASAAOAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier rejects

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5579	(Money: +0.5749)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9910
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0090
3.	No double	+0.8235	-0.1675
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6626 0.2949 0.0301 - 0.3374 0.0714 0.0040 +0.5579 +0.8235 Standard error 0.0007 0.0008 0.0004 - 0.0007 0.0007 0.0003 0.0022 0.0042 Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 2-cube 0.6742 0.2830 0.0273 - 0.3258 0.0656 0.0045 +1.1631 +0.9910 Standard error 0.0011 0.0012 0.0006 - 0.0011 0.0008 0.0004 0.0059 0.0075
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806052479 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Round #5 Cube #2
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 4:12 a.m.
  • Round #5 Cube #2
    adambulldog -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 4:45 a.m.
    • Round #5 Cube #2
      John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 2:03 p.m.
  • Round #5 Cube #2
    Havard Raddum -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 8:31 a.m.
  • Round #5 Cube #2
    pontiac -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 1:58 p.m.
  • Round #5 Cube #2
    Keene -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 3:18 p.m.
  • Round #5 Cube #2
    Coolrey -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 5:01 p.m.
  • Round #5 Cube #2
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 7:07 p.m.
  • Round #5 Cube #2
    Caryl Stephanson -- Thursday, 20 November 2008, at 10:00 p.m.
  • Round #5 Cube #2 Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 21 November 2008, at 7:18 p.m.