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LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 24 November 2008, at 4:44 a.m.

In Response To: LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

A crucial decision that's well worth taking some time to figure out OTB. If you run B/14, 4 numbers hit you and 14 more allow the oppt to escape and win the race. The other 18 leave a dbl shot so you hit around 11 of those. After hitting, the game looks around even. I'll guess B/14 then gives you 5.5 single wins in 36 games, 5.5 gammon losses (I'm guessing 3 gammon losses from his 4 immediate hits and another 2.5 from some later hit), and 25 single game losses. The 2-cube gammon prices I use for this score are .62 for the leader and .56 for the trailer. Your "gammon-adjusted wins" are therefore 5.5 - .62* 5.5, or around 2.10. You're therefore a 33.9 to 2.1 underdog if you play B/14. This gives you a cubeless equity of -31.8/36.

How about the loose hit? That leaves 20 hits, 6 of which are devastating (52,22,21,11). OTOH, the other 16 leave you in reasonably good shape, especially if the oppt dances. One reasonable way to analyze this position is to group the oppt's rolls into 5 categories and then estimate each sides wins and gammons in each category. Cat 1 might be the 6 jokers, 2 could be the other 14 hits & fan, 3 could be the other 14 hits and you roll a 5, 4 could be one of the 12 enter but no hit rolls, and 5 could be the 4 dancers. My guesstimates for these added together are (for Matt & Stick's side): 9 wins, 2 gammon wins, 8.5 losses, and 16.5 gammon losses. Your gammon adjusted wins are therefore 11 + .56 * 2 - .62 * 16.5, or about 1.9, making you a 34.1 to 1.9 underdog. Your cubeless equity after this play is therefore -32.2/36.

So if my estimates are in the ballpark, it looks like the 2 plays are very close in terms of cubeless equity. The fact that you own the cube should make you choose 13/7x. That play gives you a lot more wins which therefore should give you a lot more chances to redouble in a favorable position. This factor should be enough to easily overcome the play's slight deficit in cubeless equity.

13/7x and hope for the best!

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