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BGonline.org Forums
Snowie Rollout and Analysis
Posted By: Paul Weaver In Response To: Can someone explain why not to slot here ? (neilkaz)
Date: Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 3:23 a.m.
My Snowie rollout (data posted below) indicates that the choice is not nearly as close as Kaz' GNU rollout says. Slotting is wrong by more than 0.02.
Slotting with 21 in the opening position is virtually pick ‘em. Let’s compare slotting in Kaz’ position (shown below) to slotting with 21 in the opening position. Here are four reasons that slotting in Kaz’ position is less effective than slotting with 21 in the opening position.
(1) There is less duplication of 4s here than in the opening position. White’s 42 31 11 are no longer great point-making rolls.
(2) After slotting in the opening position and getting hit, you have a great 54 from the bar (B/20 24/20), making an advanced anchor. After slotting in the Kaz position and getting hit, your 54 from the bar is much less effective.
(3) In the Kaz position, your 55 on your next shake plays beautifully if you do not slot. In the opening position, your 55 next shake is not nearly as effective.
(4) Finally, when you are a big favorite in a position without slotting, there is no need to take the risk. In the position presented by Kaz, White is a huge favorite. By slotting, Blue gives White a chance to get back in the game when she hits. You stand to lose more and gain less by slotting in a position in which you are a big favorite than by slotting in a pick ‘em position.
(Green) vs. (White)
Money session. Score Green-White: 0-0
Pip: 155 Game 1 Money session
Green-White: Score 0-0 Pip: 162 # Ply Move Equity 1 R bar/20 11/10 0.228
0.6% 14.1% 55.4% 44.6% 8.2% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: 0.245
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.168 ±0.004, - live cube: 0.245 ±0.008. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 7, 668 games (equiv. 267025 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 4 pts, random seed, without race database.
2 R bar/20 6/5 0.205 (-0.023)
0.6% 14.2% 55.2% 44.8% 9.6% 0.5%
Live cube rollout: 0.219
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.150 ±0.004, - live cube: 0.219 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 7, 648 games, played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 4 pts, seed 1, without race database.
3 3 bar/20 8/7 0.094 (-0.134)
0.5% 13.2% 52.1% 47.9% 10.5% 0.5% 4 3 bar/24* 20/15 0.082 (-0.146)
0.8% 14.4% 52.3% 47.7% 13.3% 0.6% 5 3 bar/24* 13/8 0.044 (-0.183)
0.9% 15.1% 50.7% 49.3% 13.2% 0.6%
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