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BGonline.org Forums
Snowie Rollout and Analysis
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Snowie Rollout and Analysis (Paul Weaver)
Date: Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 4:58 a.m.
I wouldn't call it a pick em in the opening position. GNU prefers slotting over splitting by .0156, 13/10 is back by nearly .07.
White has less good rolls to improve his position after the quiet 11/10. 42 and 31 are no longer duplicated as Paul points out, and actually aren't very good rolls. 61, usually a good roll, doesn't do much. 11, a great roll in the opening position, is below average here. His other rolls like 32 and 43 are exposing more blots or stacking awkwardly--basically, the blot on the ace point causes problems for White until he covers it. Say White rolls 32 and plays 24/22 24/21; now Blue can attack those blots and the blot is still lingering. Or he plays 24/21 6/4, now Blue can build with more impunity. So 11/10 is quite a bit better than in the starting position. 6/5 gives him some more good rolls and more easy decisions.
I also wouldn't call Blue a huge favorite in this position (if he could double after his roll White would have a borderline beaver), but he is a clear favorite and White's position is more uncomfortable than it looks.
Most of White's 4s are actually pretty bad numbers here, since if he splits, he has to sit on Blue's 5 point and leave another blot exposed and still leave the blot on the ace point.
At any rate, I would have slotted, but I can believe that 11/10 is best--but before I do I'd rather see the GNU rollout extended quite a bit.
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