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LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 5:06 a.m.

In Response To: LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

David was wrong, I was wrong, Stick was right, but I was right more often than Stick.

The tradeoff is somewhat clear here, play to pick up a ton of wins vs. play to save a ton of gammons. Usually I am a staunch advocate of playing to win but B/14 didn't seem like it was entirely giving up on the win to me. Kit/Tami can still fail to get by us and we still have real winning chances, unlike most "give-up" plays. However we aren't dead after a rehit and can still roll a 5.

I was very unsure at first but eventually cast my lot with B/14 with the explanation that 13/7* "just felt wrong". I have no idea how John reached his estimate. But the ratio of wins:gammons is very close, 14% more wins, almost 28% gammons saved. B/14 is slightly worse cubelessly so the cube position seems to be the dominant factor.

Stick wanted to hit, we hit, they rolled 16, we rolled 55 from the roof.

The score (after 1 game) is: Kit Woolsey-Tami Jones 2, Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 27: Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice to play 65

Kit Woolsey-Tami Jones	75
Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice	129
Position ID: 2+YLgADinoMDQA Match ID: UQn3ACAAAAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice moves bar/20 13/7*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/20 13/7*	-0.5731
			0.3055 0.0318 0.0011 - 0.6945 0.3807 0.0028 -0.7484 -0.5731 0.0028 0.0022 0.0003 - 0.0028 0.0063 0.0025 0.0078 0.0116
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805874112 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/14	-0.6764 ( -0.1033)
			0.1638 0.0092 0.0002 - 0.8362 0.1054 0.0017 -0.7722 -0.6764 0.0027 0.0011 0.0000 - 0.0027 0.0048 0.0009 0.0063 0.0090
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805874112 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 23 November 2008, at 8:27 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
    Martin -- Sunday, 23 November 2008, at 8:43 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
    Neil Robins -- Sunday, 23 November 2008, at 9:28 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
    pontiac -- Sunday, 23 November 2008, at 9:54 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
    David Rockwell -- Monday, 24 November 2008, at 1:19 a.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 24 November 2008, at 4:44 a.m.
    • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
      pontiac -- Monday, 24 November 2008, at 4:23 p.m.
      • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 24 November 2008, at 6:10 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
    neilkaz -- Monday, 24 November 2008, at 5:04 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 5:06 a.m.
    • Rollout above *NM*
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 5:19 a.m.
    • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
      David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 5:31 a.m.
      • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #1
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 5:56 a.m.