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Rollout at 3a4a

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 7:20 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout at 3a4a (Mislav Radica)

Here's a Gnubg rollout with 3-ply cube, with the result Double/Pass -- not Too Good.

Although both 2-ply and 3-ply evaluations say take, the 3-ply ND and D/T equities are much higher and closer to 1.000, which suggests that 3-ply is making fewer bad takes next roll (see Neil's comment on the 2-ply rollout's "too good" result).

The score (after 0 games) is: White 8, Blue 7 (match to 11 points)

Move number 2: White on roll, cube decision?

White98


'2X '2O '4X4X3X2X ' '1O

'2O2O2O2O2O '1O ' '1O '

Blue114

Position ID: tm0iAQaG924AAA Match ID: MAFgAYAAOAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.5246(Money: +0.5187)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass +1.0000
2.Double, take +1.0946 +0.0946
3.No double +0.9717 -0.0283
Proper cube action:Double, pass
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.75760.01240.0001-0.24240.00900.0001 +0.5246 +0.9717
Standard error0.00070.00040.0000-0.00070.00160.0000 0.0016 0.0067
Player Blue owns 2-cube0.76040.01590.0001-0.23960.01270.0000 +1.5424 +1.0946
Standard error0.00100.00180.0000-0.00100.00240.0001 0.0053 0.0085
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1029 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805701817 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]


Annotation
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4716 (Money: +0.4646)
0.7304 0.0117 0.0001 - 0.2696 0.0081 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.8033
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.1967)
3. No double +0.7875 ( -0.0158)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.5280 (Money: +0.5191)
0.7558 0.0140 0.0002 - 0.2442 0.0067 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9853
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0147)
3. No double +0.9075 ( -0.0778)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.4812 (Money: +0.4737)
0.7345 0.0124 0.0002 - 0.2655 0.0078 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.8328
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.1672)
3. No double +0.8145 ( -0.0183)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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