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Responding to Daniel Murphy

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 8:11 a.m.

In Response To: Can someone explain why not to slot here ? (Daniel Murphy)

Daniel Murphy asks, “What’s up with the Snowie rollouts truncated at 7-ply with a 4-cube settlement?”

I trust Snowie more than GNU for these early game rollouts for money. Look at Stick’s Snowie and GNU rollouts for opening 21. The long Snowie rollout says slot and split are within .003; the long GNU rollout says slot and split are .0156 apart. At least one of these is pretty far off. It would take me too long to explain my reasons, but I trust the Snowie rollout a lot more than the GNU rollout here.

Why use truncated instead of full rollouts? If I had unlimited CPU, I would certainly do full rollouts instead of truncated. If I were writing a book, I would do long full rollouts, try to assemble a team of rollout volunteers, and spend five years on the project to make sure everything was 100% correct. When I want a reasonably reliable result within a couple of hours, I do a truncated rollout. When the margin is this large (greater than 0.02), I believe there is at least a 95% chance that the rollout determines which play is best.

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