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LV Finals Play #1

Posted By: Sam Pottle
Date: Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 10:15 p.m.

In Response To: LV Finals Play #1 (tem_sat)

Having watched almost all of Matt's final, that was my favorite position of the match.

I agree. It's great to see problems like this one come up when it counts.

I think these questions are important to the analysis:

-After 3/2, is White supposed to stick around for a shot?

-If not, how likely is it that he'll stick around anyway?

Once you start counting, it quickly becomes clear that White should escape if he can. This simplifies the analysis, because after either 3/2 or 2/1*, White hits 11 times, escapes 20 times, and retains contact 5 times (in 36 games). This allows you to concentrate on the backgammons and additional hit shots in that little 5/36 slice of the continuations.

2/1* turns out to be significantly safer, while winning only slightly fewer backgammons. It's reasonably close, though, and once you discount the difference by that factor of 5/36, I believe the decision ends up being swung by the fact that 2/1* loses the game more often after an immediate hit (because the two Blue checkers are further from home).

So, I think 3/2 is a little better technically, but a lot better practically if there's any chance White won't run when he should.

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