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LV Finals Cube #1

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:12 a.m.

In Response To: LV Finals Cube #1 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

They can't drop if you don't double!

OK, this isn't a cube. But I noted a few things:

1) I had just climbed back from down 10-4 to tie it at 11-11.
2) Stacy had thus far been trying to consolidate a modest advantage in this game. Two rolls ago the position looked like this:

The score (after 15 games) is: Stacy Turner 11, Matt Cohn-Geier 11 (match to 15 points)

Move number 8: Matt Cohn-Geier on roll, cube decision?

Stacy Turner	133
Matt Cohn-Geier	138
Position ID: sGeWBwDg24MDEA Match ID: cAngAbAAWAAA

If I had been creeping up on a cube for the past 6 rolls here Stacy would probably have taken, but the 54 hit/56 no return hit was a huge swing (just not enough of a swing to give me a cube). Also if I had sat and pondered whether or not I had a cube for 2 minutes he probably would have taken.

3) Stacy had passed some cubes earlier in this match that I thought were takes. Not trivial takes like this one, but close/clear takes nonetheless.

4) My small numbers point on him, my big numbers are good for the race, so my rolls play well. I have some serious market losers like PoH/no return hit. That still doesn't add up to a cube but it's close. I did not expect Stacy to drop this one--I expected him to take. However, I figured there was a small but significant chance that he might pass. If it's only a borderline ND that doesn't need to be very high, the rollout puts it at 13%. I thought my position was slightly stronger than GNU does, but I'll take it.

The score (after 15 games) is: Stacy Turner 11, Matt Cohn-Geier 11 (match to 15 points)

Move number 10: Matt Cohn-Geier on roll, cube decision?

Stacy Turner	136
Matt Cohn-Geier	129
Position ID: sNeMAwLg24MLAA Match ID: cAngAbAAWAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4446	(Money: +0.4302)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.7004
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2996
3.	Double, take	+0.6558	-0.0446
Proper cube action:		No double, take (13.0%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6993 0.0464 0.0016 - 0.3007 0.0158 0.0006 +0.4446 +0.7004 Standard error 0.0009 0.0012 0.0005 - 0.0009 0.0015 0.0002 0.0026 0.0057 Player Stacy Turner owns 2-cube 0.7042 0.0440 0.0025 - 0.2958 0.0150 0.0019 +1.0815 +0.6558 Standard error 0.0012 0.0016 0.0009 - 0.0012 0.0017 0.0010 0.0075 0.0087
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806047914 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• LV Finals Cube #1
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 12:33 a.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #1
    Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 1:36 a.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #1
    adambulldog -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 2:59 a.m.
    • LV Finals Cube #1
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 4:49 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #1
    Havard Raddum -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 12:53 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #1
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 1:27 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #1
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 3:34 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #1
    Martin -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 6:32 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #1
    Keene -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 8:00 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #1
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:12 a.m.